Former President Donald Trump has the clear frontrunner status in Arizona’s hypothetical 2024 Republican primary race, according to Noble Predictive Insights’ latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey.
The survey listed declared candidates, including former President Trump as well as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. It also included Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who is expected to make a presidential announcement this month, as well as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, and former Secretary Mike Pompeo. Notably, Pompeo announced last month that he will not run for president this election cycle.
“This isn’t our moment. This isn’t our time for us to seek elected office,” he said during an appearance on Fox News’s Special Report.
In this potentially crowded field, Trump garners support from nearly half of registered Republicans — 49 percent listed him as their candidate of choice.
No other potential challenger came close. As is consistent with other national and statewide surveys, DeSantis came in a distant second, 28 points behind with 21 percent support. Pence came in third place with seven percent support, followed by Haley and Cheney, both of whom garnered four percent support. Three percent chose Rubio, and the remaining individuals listed saw one percent support or less.
2024 Arizona Republican Primary:
Trump 49% (+28)
T. Scott 0%
Trump 59% (+18)
.@NoblePredictive, 371 RV, 4/4-11https://t.co/zXc7lf2u9F pic.twitter.com/DaamBBgMpC
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 4, 2023
For further perspective, Trump won the presidential primary in Arizona during his first bid among a crowded GOP field in 2016, besting his challengers. He ended up with 47.1 percent to Sen. Ted Cruz’s 24.9 percent and Rubio’s 13.3 percent.
NPI ’s Chief of Research Mike Noble observed that “legal woes” have not affected Trump in a negative manner.
“With his name swirling throughout the press, it seems that, for Trump, no publicity is bad publicity,” he surmised.
Even in a head-to-head matchup against his closest potential challenger, Trump still stands as the clear favorite, leading DeSantis 59 percent to the governor’s 41 percent in the Grand Canyon State — a difference of 18 points.
According to the survey, DeSantis has an advantage among Republicans with a college degree and Republican Party supporters, while Trump tends to dominate in most other categories. However, there appears to be a split in key demographics, per the survey:
- Parents of adult children (50% each)
- HHI $100k+ (51% DeSantis, 49% Trump)
- Males ages 55+ (51% DeSantis, 49% Trump)
- Moderate Republicans (53% Trump, 47% DeSantis)
Noble said it is important for candidates to know where the split lies, as this could make all the difference in this swing state.
The survey, taken April 4-11, 2023, among 371 registered Republicans, has a +/- 5.1 percent margin of error. It coincides with another state-level survey released this week, showing Trump garnering majority support in North Carolina with a 33-point lead:
2024 North Carolina: Trump holds 33-point lead for Republican Nomination
• Trump — 55% (+33)
• DeSantis — 22%
• Pence — 8%
• Haley — 5%
• Ramaswamy — 2%
• T. Scott — 1%
• Hutchinson — 1%
⦿ Survey USA (A) @JohnLockeNC
⦿ 707 LV | April 25-29https://t.co/94VmAnyU1d pic.twitter.com/sqrz7dbRwH
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 2, 2023