The afternoon, evening, and morning of April 13 and 14, 2024 displayed one of the largest ever missile barrages from one non-contiguous country to another when Iran attempted to devastate Israel. Most of the 350 plus drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles were fired from Iran – a first, but some were launched from Yemen. Iran started off the whole event with perhaps a deception operation.
Naval commandos from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC, which is a designated terrorist organization by the U.S. Government) conducted a “fast rope” operation off of helicopters to seize the Merchant Vessel Aries in the Straits of Hormuz. This was the same tactic used in November of 2023 to seize another ship, the Galaxy Leader, in the Red Sea which initiated the continuing naval war in the Middle East. The Iranians seem to be studious in the business forensics of ship ownership – both ships trace to Israeli businesses. The possible deception operation did little to distract from the missile volley that started in the afternoon.
Integrated missile defense worked magnificently
The breakout of the different weapons launched at Israel were given by Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari who said Iran fired 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles. There has been an update, the numbers of weapons now appear to be 350. A brief Wall Street Journal posting also hinted at a number of possible take aways. According to three Administration Officials, “Roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target”, and “So much for the vaunted ballistic-missile capability of Iran,”. These “talking on background” comments hint at three important take aways.
First, the possibility of “Five Eyes Plus” coordinated cyber efforts to disrupt the Iranian launch process. The liquid fueled ballistic missile inventory of Iran is still significant and the fueling process, especially in underground, bunkered spaces, is dangerous even during peacetime training conditions. The wrong valve turned the wrong time could be catastrophic. Second, the comment seemed to be a pre-emptive attempt to undermine any Israeli counterstrike. Third, the Beltway tradition of talking on background to influence the story is alive and well. In addition to a possible projection of cyber capabilities, the turkey shoot of Iranian launched drones and missiles was stunningly effective and showed extraordinary coordination between American, French, British, Jordanian, Saudi, United Arab Emirates and Israeli air to air and ground to air defense shield that was magnificent.
Biden Administration has the power to decisively enfeeble Iran
The Iranians tried to make something out of the quashing of their historic barrage. The Chief of the Iranian General Staff, Gen Mohammad Bagheri, said the attack was a “a well-planned attack with appropriate design … that neither the Iron Dome nor the missile defence shield of the Zionist regime could significantly counter. This operation achieved its goal.” Not taking away from the overwhelming success in defeating the initial attack by Iran, the dithering interference and foot dragging by the Biden Administration only provides a strong message of lack of resolve and clarity that enables Iran.
The Biden Administration policy on the situation is one word: “Don’t”. This word seems more aimed at Israel than Iran since Iran conducted the onslaught despite Biden’s strong use of the word, “Don’t”. Inexplicably, the Biden Administration is still waiving and releasing $10B more in frozen Iranian assets. Iran is dependent upon this lifeline of unfrozen funds to survive. The Biden Team seems to not understand negotiations and negotiation advantage with an uncooperative adversary. Paying the other party and then expecting cooperation defies best practices of negotiations. It should always be pay for performance, not expectation of performance. Iran’s Government is officially listed as an “Adversary Government” in U.S. Law, yet the Biden Team incentivizes bad behavior by Iran.
A perfect score does not equal victory nor success
It was a remarkable night, but a perfect score does not equal winning. The Middle East violence is growing and should be looked at as a coordinated front in the worldwide conflict that is ongoing and growing. Ukraine was Putin’s contribution to the “No Limits” partnership to topple America, October 7 was Iran’s portion of the “No Limits” deal. The Middle East Front started with the bloody Hamas attack into Israel, but then followed in November 2023 with the broad assault on Merchant shipping in the region, and now is in its third phase with the missile assault on Israel.
The Biden Team is not connecting the dots on what is going on and is attempting to transactionally tamp down on the coordinated mayhem by micro-managing Israel, and appeasing Iran. The Iranian government would not exist if it was not for the continual release of funds by the Biden Team and Chinese purchases of Iranian oil (and the large “advisory” presence of Chinese personnel in Iran). The overwhelming success of the coordinated first night of defense of Israel was historic but should not be looked at as victory or success in the big picture. It was a good night but it is just the next phase on the continuum of a world at war. We’ve shifted from the 1938 period to the 1939 phase on the pathway of World War III. Biden is playing Chamberlain flawlessly.
