If you think that the policy towards Russia, which is shaped by the perceptions and beliefs of the Washington status quo, is not seriously screwed up, think again and watch Charles Kupchan, a former Clinton and Obama National Security official and current shill for the Atlantic Council, take you on a bizarre journey worthy of Alice in Wonderland. Kupchan’s views are not unique to him. What he is saying about Russia and Ukraine is mainstream Neo-Con and reflects the views of Biden’s key national security aides and the leaders of the U.S. Senate and House. No amount of facts will change his mind. He is locked in, as is the Biden Administration, in portraying Russia as a rapacious, authoritarian state hell-bent on conquering the world.
If there is anyone in a leadership role in Russia or China who still believes that there is a path of negotiation with the United States, Kupchan’s delusional diatribes unleashed in this video should awake them to the futility of such an effort. There is no room for genuine negotiation with Moscow. The Washington establishment will not be satisfied until Putin is dead and Russia is carved up like a Thanksgiving Turkey — the bird not the country.
Here is the first segment of Kupchan’s interview on RT’s program, Going Underground. You can watch the entire program here.
The fall of Bakhmut today to the Russians, just like the capture of Mariupol one year ago to the day, is being portrayed in the West as a nothing-burger. It is a Leslie Nielsen (portraying Detective Frank Drebin) moment:
But Ukraine paid a heavy price in blood in trying to hold onto that supposedly “worthless” city. Simplicius provides the details of the Ukrainian military obituary:
Why is Bakhmut called a Meat Grinder?
Who was decimated in Bakhmut:
Advance Rubizh Brigade
Advance Azov Brigade
Advance Uragan Brigade
Advance Spartan Brigade
61st Brigade of Jaegers
Special Forces and Spetsnaz Regiments:
5th Assault Regiment
8th Regiment of Special Forces
214th OPFOR Battalion
49th Rifle Battalion
15th Mountain Assault Battalion
Border Guard Donetsk
8th Regiment of the UDAR UAVs:
Most of these battalions have suffered more than 70% casualties just aganist PMC Wagner.
The twenty five brigades listed above represents a force of at least 50,000 men (assuming only 2000 men in a reduced brigade) and as many as 125,000. Simplicius also lists at least 9 battalions and 5 regiments — that is 4500 and 5000 additional troops respectively. Do the math. If Ukraine deployed 134,500 troops to the battle for Bakhmut, 70% casualties means that Ukraine suffered as many as 94,150 killed and wounded.
Kupchan, in my view, is a precise barometer of the philosophical and political ideology directing U.S. policy towards Russia and Ukraine. These people — e.g., Sullivan, Blinken, Nuland and Kupchan — really believe that Russia is an impoverished, ravaged nation barely hanging on and nothing yet has shaken them of that belief. They are convinced that if Ukraine can pull off a military miracle that Russia will collapse. This mindset is not only crazy, it is dangerous. It grossly underestimates Russia’s capability and determination to achieve its stated goals of demilitarizing and de-nazifying Ukraine and rests heavily on the false assumption that Russia does not have the economic power to sustain its military effort.
I do recommend you read the latest from Simplicius the Thinker. It is behind a pay wall. He offers a fascinating, detailed analysis of the next steps in the war. I believe that Simplicius is not the sole author of the excellent pieces posted at his Substack. I believe he is a conduit for providing the view of Russian military intelligence about the state of play in the war Russia is waging in Ukraine. He is getting help from knowledgeable folks on the Russian side. Please do not misinterpret what I am trying to convey — I am not accusing Simplicius of being a Russian stooge. Far from it. I think he represents a rather sophisticated information operation designed to try to communicate with the West the reality of what Ukraine faces in this war.
Simplicius is a clever vehicle for getting information to the public that is not covered with the taint of a Russian Ministry of Defense briefing. I am not suggesting that the Russian MOD is lying. Just pointing out the the establishment West routinely rejects anything the MOD provides. Simplicius, as a Substac author, is not an immediate lightning rod and his well reasoned pieces appear to be having the intended effect of educating people in the West about what is really going on and what may happen. I realize that some, like Charles Kupchan, immediately reject what Simplicius is presenting by labeling it as “Russian propaganda.” Simplicius, in my view, is not a propagandist or a spin artist.
Let me take one telling example from his latest work. He comments on the reported ambush of two Russian combat aircraft and two helicopters last week. The initial public reaction credited Ukraine with a daring operation that caught the Russians with their pants down. But Simplicius now presents a credible case that the Russians themselves shot down these aircraft.
Some might argue, they recently blasted an entire Russian ‘special air group’ near Bryansk. But to be honest, the more time goes by, the more I’m personally leaning towards the explanation that that air group was destroyed by friendly fire. The prominent Russian ‘FighterBomber’ channel seems to agree, stating that Russian IFF (Identify Friend Foe) systems have known problems, and it would explain a lot of very untenable anomalies of the shoot down; like why the EW choppers did not appear to be engaging the threat at all with their automated systems which disperse flares/chaff and why they wouldn’t have been able to jam the system in question to begin with, as is their role. Keep in mind, Ukraine itself denied that they were responsible for this shoot down, officially, though that’s not necessarily saying much.
It’s simply too improbable, and they have no real systems that can reach that far into Russian space, have never done it before or since. So personally, my senses tell me that was a catastrophic case of blue on blue. Wouldn’t be the first or last time—most of the shoot downs of Russian Su-34s over Donetsk last year were confirmed to have been by friendly fire. And most shoot downs in general throughout history are friendly fire, which includes the majority of NATO/U.S. shoot downs in the various conflicts like Desert Storm, etc. It’s a simple reality of air operations.
Whether Simplicius is producing all of these excellent pieces on his own or is getting help from Russian military intelligence is irrelevant because the quality of what is written stands on its own and is worth reading, which means you ought to consider subscribing to his Substack. Sadly, people like Charles Kupchan prefer to wallow in the filth of ignorance and blindly embrace suicidal policies that will do more to harm the United States than Russia.