OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
An enormous amount of doubts about President Joe Biden’s age, deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy, and a host of other issues have resulted in him trailing former President Donald Trump in five of the six most significant battleground states one year before the 2024 election.
According to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College, the results indicate that Biden is trailing Trump by margins ranging from four to ten percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
According to the poll, Biden leads only in Wisconsin, where he leads by two percentage points. Across the six battlegrounds—all of which Biden carried in 2020—the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent.
In the Times/Siena poll, discontent is pervasive; most respondents claim that Biden’s policies have negatively impacted them personally, the New York Times reported.
The survey results reveal a wide range of Biden’s shortcomings, and worries about the president’s aging and mental capacity are just the beginning. Sixty-two percent of respondents felt that Mr. Biden lacked the “mental sharpness” necessary to be an effective leader.
The poll also shows how much the coalition of different races and generations that supported Biden in his election is eroding. Now, there is much more competition among the demographic groups that supported Biden by wide margins in 2020 because two-thirds of voters believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
Biden’s lead among Hispanic voters is in the single digits; his advantage in urban areas is half of Trump’s edge in rural areas; and he is only slightly preferred by voters under thirty.
Men favored Trump by twice as much as women did, reversing the gender advantage that had driven so many Democratic victories in recent years, even though women still supported Biden.
Long a pillar of support for Democrats and Biden, black voters are now giving Trump 22 percent of the vote in these states, a percentage never before seen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
Trump has a six-point lead in Nevada, five in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan, and four in Pennsylvania when you add it all up.
In Wisconsin, Biden had a two-point advantage.
It did not take long for Trump to take to his Truth Social website and post the results of the poll.
Biden trailed more in swing states with greater diversity, and he only led in the whitest of the six states, in an astonishing indication of a slow racial realignment between the two parties.
The poll indicates that both Biden and Trump enjoy extreme unpopularity. However, a majority of voters who feel the country is headed in the wrong direction are venting their resentment at the president.
Spencer Weiss, a 53-year-old Bloomsburg, Pennsylvania, electrical substation specialist who backed Biden in 2020 but is now backing Trump, albeit with some reservations, said, “The world is falling apart under Biden. I would much rather see someone who I believe can lead the nation as a positive role model. However, I believe that Trump is at least intelligent.”
The poll demonstrates how, despite Trump’s four criminal indictments and 2024 trial, Biden starts the following year behind.
Should the poll’s findings hold true in November of next year, Trump is expected to secure over 300 Electoral College votes, significantly surpassing the 270 required to win the presidency.
The fact that voters of all income levels believed that Trump’s policies had benefited them personally while Biden’s policies had hurt them personally is another worrying indicator for Democrats.
Voters gave Trump a 17-point advantage for helping them and Biden an 18-point disadvantage for hurting them, resulting in a mirror-opposite outcome.
Regarding the economy, voters preferred Trump over Biden by a margin of 59 percent to 37 percent, the greatest difference on any issue.
On economic issues, the electorate as a whole—men and women, college graduates and non-grads, all age groups and income brackets—preferred Trump.