Top Pollsters Say Trump Will Handily Win ’24 GOP Primary, Strong Against Biden

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.


One of the country’s leading pollsters says the GOP primary race is already over, and former President Donald Trump has won months before the first ballots are cast.

In addition, John and Jim McLaughlin say that, according to their data, Trump is polling very strongly against President Biden and has a real shot at defeating him next year.

“Since our last national poll, Donald Trump has gone to Iowa, New Hampshire, and to court. The most attention Joe Biden received was when he flew back and forth to Israel, where he may be talking tough while appeasing Hamas and Iran,” they wrote at Newsmax.

“The result: President Trump destroys the Republican primary field and widens his lead over Joe Biden,” they added.

The pollsters noted further: “In the Republican primary, among all candidates, Donald Trump has his largest lead of the year, +47%, receiving 55% of the vote to Ron DeSantis 8% (way down from 31% in January), Nikki Haley 8%, Vivek Ramaswamy 7%, Mike Pence 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Tim Scott 2%, Larry Elder, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Perry Johnson, all received 1% with 10% undecided. Since we began the poll, Larry Elder, Perry Johnson, and Mike Pence have all ended their campaigns. In a two-way ballot between President Trump and Ron DeSantis, Trump leads 73% to DeSantis 27%. No undecided.”

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The pollsters wrote that the biggest concern for DeSantis is a rising tide of negative ratings.

They note that in January of this year, DeSantis’ favorable rating was 40 percent versus 39 percent unfavorable. Now it stands at 34 percent favorable versus 51 percent unfavorable, for a net decrease of 18 points.

“Among Republican primary voters, his favorable rating is only 57%, with a significant share being negative, 29% unfavorable. This makes it very, very hard for Ron DeSantis to prove that he can beat Joe Biden, while Donald Trump is leading,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, Trump also trounces his onetime UN ambassador, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, 75-25 percent, they noted.

The pollsters also pointed out that Trump has yet to attend a GOP primary debate — he’s already announced he won’t attend the third one, either — which, the McLaughlin brothers believe, has actually helped him.

In fact, they noted, most GOP voters think the debates should end and the remaining field drop out and support Trump with a singular focus of defeating Biden.

When GOP primary voters were asked, “Currently Donald Trump is leading in all the Republican primary polls nationally by very big margins of 30, 40 or more points and winning early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina by big margins. Even more important President Trump leads Joe Biden in the national media polls like ABC/Washington Post, CBS, Harvard Harris and others. It’s time to stop the RNC debates attacking Donald Trump, fight Biden’s political indictments, and rally Republicans behind President Trump so we can start the campaign of beating Joe Biden” – 76 percent of them agreed, and only 16 percent disagreed.

Trump is also making inroads with traditional Democrat voting blocs.

“Among all voters President Trump leads Joe Biden 48% to 43% with 9% undecided. Most interesting President Trump receives 27% of the African American vote and 39% among Hispanics. Joe Biden is losing a good portion of his 2020 voting base,” the pollsters wrote.

One major reason is that an overwhelming 70 percent of all voters say the U.S. is on the wrong track compared to just 24 percent who say it’s heading in the right direction.

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Among all voters, Biden’s job approval rating is just 43 percent compared with 55 percent who give him negative marks.

Also, Republicans currently lead Democrats in generic congressional polls 47-43 percent.

“It’s too early to say Trump has won the 2024 election, but his prospects are looking very strong,” the pollsters wrote. “Donald Trump as President and a Republican majority in Congress. We have a year to go.”

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