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The number of Hispanic American voters has increased by nearly 5 million since the 2018 midterm elections, and they have increasingly trended to the right, potentially benefiting Republican candidates from former President Donald Trump on down the ballot.
A recent analysis conducted by the left-leaning Pew Research Center, Hispanic voters increased by 4.7 million over the past five years. “While Democrats still outpace Republicans in terms of voter registration, a higher number of Latinos voted Republican in the 2022 midterm elections than they did in 2018,” ADN America reported, citing Pew’s data.
The analysis also noted that Hispanics are trending red.
“While Hispanic voters continued to favor Democrats over Republicans, a higher share of Hispanic voters supported GOP candidates in the 2022 election compared with 2018,” it said. “In November, 60% of Hispanic voters cast ballots for Democrats, compared with 39% who supported Republicans. This 21-point margin is smaller than in 2018, when 72% of Hispanic voters favored Democrats and 25% supported Republicans.”
Previously, ADN America reported that Hispanic Americans have now surpassed the non-Hispanic white majority in Texas, adding that 1 million Hispanics reach the voting age of 18 every year now:
Last year, Hispanics made up 40.2% of the Texas population while non-Hispanic White Texans made up 39.4%, according to estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) for 2021.
“One million young Hispanic Americans are expected to turn 18 every year for the next 15 years, according to an October 2022 Pew Research Center study, making Hispanic American youth a key target demographic for both parties as a million new eligible voters will be borne from the group each year for the next decade and a half,” ADN reported separately.
Clarissa Martínez, vice president of the Latino vote initiative, Unidos, told ABC News recently: “We are currently the second largest group in the United States in which nearly one of every five people in our country is Hispanic. And we look at that from different angles. Latinos are now the second largest group of voting-age Americans and are playing an increasingly important and defining role in our political landscape.”
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump continues to expand leads over President Joe Biden in national surveys, most importantly in crucial battleground states.
According to the latest Emerson College Polling survey, Trump is besting Biden by 12 points in the key state of Ohio, 45-33 percent. The survey of 438 registered voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 points.
Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is also trailing behind two prospective GOP challengers while leading a third potential Republican opponent, the survey found. Also, while Biden’s job approval rating is -33 percent in the Buckeye State, GOP Gov. Mike DeWine is above water by +6 percent.
“Trump leads Biden by 12 points in Ohio, a larger lead than his 2020 and 2016 victories of about eight points,” Emerson College Professor Spencer Kimball noted. “Like in the U.S. Senate race, younger and minority voters are more likely to be undecided or voting for someone else — indicating lower enthusiasm for Democratic candidates both at the statewide and national level.”
When they were asked if something occurred over the next few months that may cause them to rethink the candidate they are currently supporting, about 55 percent of Trump backers said they wouldn’t vote for Biden while 49 percent of Biden voters said nothing would change their minds.
Kimball also addressed the survey’s findings regarding Brown’s election.
“With just over a year until the 2024 Ohio U.S. Senate election, many established Democratic demographics, like voters under 30 and Black voters, are demonstrating a lower level of enthusiasm toward Brown,” Kimball noted. “It is not that these voters are supporting the Republican candidate over Brown, they are choosing to select someone else or note they are undecided at this point. About a third of voters under 30 indicate they would vote for someone else or are undecided in a Brown/Dolan matchup; 38% of Black voters indicate the same.”
“An encouraging sign for Brown is that he leads Republicans by several points among independent voters,” Kimball added.