OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
A newly released Morning Consult poll last week found that Donald Trump is even with President Joe Biden after gaining ground on him following the previous survey, even as the former president becomes mired in a series of court cases.
Voters were asked their preferences between Trump and Biden and Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump has a commanding lead over his fellow Republicans, including a 49-point margin over DeSantis, while gaining 4 points on Biden, with 43% of the vote each.
Biden defeated DeSantis 43% to 38% in a hypothetical matchup. Twelve percent said they would vote for an alternative candidate, and seven percent said they were undecided, the survey noted. That is a five-point increase for Biden over DeSantis.
Meanwhile, a new analysis of 2020 Census Bureau data is better news for Trump than it is for Biden, should the two face off against each other again next year.
The Electoral College map is looking better for Republicans, generally, as “red states such as Florida and Texas picked up Electoral College votes, while blue states such as California, New York, and Illinois lost them,” The Western Journal reported.
According to Ballotpedia, 13 states lost and gained electoral votes following the last census. Texas, for instance, gained an additional two congressional districts and electoral college votes. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each picked up one as well; three of those—Florida, Montana, and North Carolina—trend red or are genuinely red.
At the same time, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one. Of those, California, Illinois, Michigan, and New York are blue or trend blue, while Pennsylvania is leaning that way. Ohio and West Virginia are reliably red.
“Biden won the 2020 race 306-232 in the Electoral College. However, with the new electoral vote breakdown in place, Biden’s win in 2020 would have dipped slightly to 303-235, according to the site 270 to Win,” The Western Journal noted.
The outlet expounded on the massive changes:
Those three votes could make the difference in 2024, based on the results of a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey published Thursday.
The poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona (47 to 43 percent), Georgia (48 to 43 percent), Wisconsin (46 to 44 percent), and Pennsylvania (46 to 45 percent) in a head-to-head matchup for the White House.
The 45th president also leads Biden in North Carolina (47 to 43 percent), which Trump won by 1.3 percent in 2020.
Last month, radio host Michael Patrick Leahy noted that the more Trump is prosecuted by various Democratic district attorneys and the Biden administration, the higher his polling numbers climb.
“We see, apparently, that every time the Department of Justice or a state left-wing district attorney indicts Donald Trump, his poll numbers go up,” Leahy said as he interviewed top pollster John McLaughlin. “I’m looking at the Morning Consult poll today. Just came out: Trump 61; DeSantis 13; Haley 7; Ramaswamy 7; Pence 5; Christie 3; Scott 1; Burgum 1. Trump by 48 points.
“Morning Consult has Trump and Biden tied, but I’ve seen Trump up 9 in the Washington Post poll and Trump up 3 in another. The polls say it’s looking good for Donald J. Trump,” he said.
Trump’s substantial lead over the remaining GOP primary field also factors heavily into his decision to avoid the debates.
Trump is preparing to skip the third Republican primary debate and will instead hold a rally in South Florida as counter-programming.
Trump’s campaign says he’ll hold a rally at a stadium in Hialeah on the evening of November 8th, roughly half an hour from where his opponents will be holding their own rally at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have all qualified for the third Republican presidential debate on November 8.